Resolves 15 Jan 2027 · 87 days

SPYM if the 10-year Treasury yield reaches 5.5% in 2026

Resolves 15 Jan 2027 · 87 days

25%Chance from Polymarket ↗75%

Amount

Otherwise—

If it happensNothing

NO1.26×

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Paid out by a verified contract

Shares contract ↗ (opens in a new tab) · Exchange ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Paid out before: Bitcoin reaches $88,000 between Sep 28 and Oct 4, 2026 resolved NO; our test wallet redeemed its NO shares on chain. Payout transaction ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Min $0.01 · Pays in SPYM (tokenized, on Base) · Fund with USDC or SPYM

Fills now or not at all; the signature expires in 10 minutes. SPYM here is wtSPYM on Base; dollars at $90.71 today.

Signal: none yet — prices match Polymarket

The prices match Polymarket’s odds ↗ (25.4%), so they imply today’s price either way. A gap shows once someone disagrees.

The signal over time

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Details

How it’s derived

A YES share pays one SPYM if it happens and nothing otherwise, so its price is roughly the chance it happens times what SPYM would be worth then. Divide out the chance and what is left is the market’s value of SPYM given that it happens. The same for NO, with the chance it doesn’t.

If it happens: YES 0.254 (mid) ÷ P 0.254 = 1.00× spot ≈ $90.74
Otherwise: NO 0.746 ÷ (1 − P) 0.746 = 1.00× spot ≈ $90.70

How far to trust it

Chance (P): 25.4% from Polymarket, as of just now. It is a reference: not traded here, settles nothing here. Their book: bid 24.3%, ask 26.4% (2.1 points wide).
Leg prices: The midpoint of this book: YES 0.254 SPYM (bid 0.213, ask 0.294, 8.1 points wide); NO is the rest of one share.
Spot: $90.71 from a DEX route quote of the token into USDC on Base. It only turns the multiples into dollars.
Updated: Just now; refreshed every 20 seconds.
Sensitivity: One point of P moves the “if it happens” value by about 4%.

Order book

Price (SPYM)Shares

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Recent trades

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Rules

Settled on UMA ↗

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?

Full rules and settlement

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

How it settles

1
Deadline · 15 Jan 2027
The words above are frozen on chain.
2
Anyone proposes the answer
With a 500 USDC bond on UMA.
3
24h to dispute
Undisputed, it settles; a second dispute goes to a UMA vote.
4
Redeem
The winning leg redeems for one SPYM.

Contracts and settlement

This question mirrors the Polymarket market "Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?" (https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-before-2027, Polygon conditionId 0x1f10b1f557ab254487c22a6b7cd4b4a3b14e561c0017bc6fc58bb81f306ad558). Its rules are copied verbatim below as published on 2026-10-10; wherever they say "this market", they mean that Polymarket market.

Nobody can edit the frozen words, including Polymarket. The proposer posts a 500 USDC bond plus UMA’s 250 USDC final fee, both returned if their answer stands, on UMA, the oracle Polymarket also uses, through the same adapter contract Polymarket uses, unmodified. A first dispute re-opens the question; a second goes to UMA’s token-holder vote, and whoever was wrong loses their bond: if you hold a leg a wrong answer would hurt, the dispute window is yours.

Emergency override: the adapter’s admin can flag a question and resolve it manually one hour later, with any payout, over whatever UMA said. That power exists in Polymarket’s adapter as deployed (0x006B05…19e665 (opens in a new tab)).

Polymarket’s own result has no effect here. The two are expected to agree because the wording is the same.

Oracle: 0x006B05…19e665 (opens in a new tab)
Question id: 0x755f9fac9f1a4eb42ad7f13e9b43b2f50dae3ec4ea98e36b9ce25d4b94035cef
Condition: 0x68d4c11735d7dae66078eed3076ab3e7b8149a440a4e9d951cb915b6889a6f4c
Exchange: 0x74E465…f7d4C7 (opens in a new tab)
Collateral: wtSPYM (opens in a new tab)

Settles through Polymarket's UMA adapter (unmodified) on UMA's Optimistic Oracle. The question text is frozen on chain and copies Polymarket's rules word for word. After the deadline anyone can propose the answer with a 500 USDC bond plus UMA's 250 USDC final fee (both returned if the answer stands); undisputed for 24h it settles, disputed it goes to UMA's token-holder vote. Polymarket's own result has no effect here. The adapter's admin can flag an unresolved question and resolve it manually one hour later — an emergency override over UMA's answer, disclosed because it exists.
The Polymarket probability shown is for reference only. It is not traded here and does not settle anything here.
wtSPYM is an upgradeable token controlled by its issuer. Every position here depends on it.
Dividends accrue into wtSPYM as backing and flow to whichever leg wins. These legs decompose total return, not price.
A contingent claim on a security is a derivative on a security. This is a proof of concept.