MSTR if Bitcoin reaches $88,000 between Sep 28 and Oct 4, 2026

Resolved

It didn’t happen.

NO redeems for 1 MSTR. YES pays nothing.

Your position

Details

One transaction to the shares contract (Conditional Tokens) 0x8012…9538 ↗ (opens in a new tab): redeemPositions pays each leg at the reported result. Nothing needs approving; no fee beyond the network’s.

Rules

Settled on UMA ↗

Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 September 28-October 4?

Full rules and settlement

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

How it settles

1
Deadline · 5 Oct 2026
The words above are frozen on chain.
2
Anyone proposes the answer
With a 500 USDC bond on UMA.
3
24h to dispute
Undisputed, it settles; a second dispute goes to a UMA vote.
4
Redeem
The winning leg redeems for one MSTR.

Contracts and settlement

This question mirrors the Polymarket market "Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 September 28-October 4?" (https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-september-28-october-4-2026, Polygon conditionId 0xab282b072be770a1f8b7ef07439a48fdec479d6e8a09300071a68d5ba617bf9d). Its rules are copied verbatim below as published on 2026-10-02; wherever they say "this market", they mean that Polymarket market.

Nobody can edit the frozen words, including Polymarket. The proposer posts a 500 USDC bond plus UMA’s 250 USDC final fee, both returned if their answer stands, on UMA, the oracle Polymarket also uses, through the same adapter contract Polymarket uses, unmodified. A first dispute re-opens the question; a second goes to UMA’s token-holder vote, and whoever was wrong loses their bond: if you hold a leg a wrong answer would hurt, the dispute window is yours.

Emergency override: the adapter’s admin can flag a question and resolve it manually one hour later, with any payout, over whatever UMA said. That power exists in Polymarket’s adapter as deployed (0x006B05…19e665 (opens in a new tab)).

Polymarket’s own result has no effect here. The two are expected to agree because the wording is the same.

Oracle: 0x006B05…19e665 (opens in a new tab)
Question id: 0x0794d5ebf0da55a526ed532ce3bba816fac47c3f5256bbbeed9edc1da3b63076
Condition: 0x87d9eee3238270fb9b96e7d0eca3e1340a88262130164271d8a19c0e96e19999
Exchange: 0xAAf98C…dd2e78 (opens in a new tab)
Collateral: wtMSTR (opens in a new tab)

Settles through Polymarket's UMA adapter (unmodified) on UMA's Optimistic Oracle. The question text is frozen on chain and copies Polymarket's rules word for word. After the deadline anyone can propose the answer with a 500 USDC bond plus UMA's 250 USDC final fee (both returned if the answer stands); undisputed for 24h it settles, disputed it goes to UMA's token-holder vote. Polymarket's own result has no effect here. The adapter's admin can flag an unresolved question and resolve it manually one hour later — an emergency override over UMA's answer, disclosed because it exists.
The Polymarket probability shown is for reference only. It is not traded here and does not settle anything here.
wtMSTR is an upgradeable token controlled by its issuer. Every position here depends on it.
Dividends accrue into wtMSTR as backing and flow to whichever leg wins. These legs decompose total return, not price.
A contingent claim on a security is a derivative on a security. This is a proof of concept.