Resolves 1 Nov 2026 · 12 days

COIN if Bitcoin dips to $75,000 in October 2026

Resolves 1 Nov 2026 · 12 days

19%Chance from Polymarket ↗81%

Amount

If it happens—

OtherwiseNothing

YES4.4×

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Paid out by a verified contract

Shares contract ↗ (opens in a new tab) · Exchange ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Paid out before: Bitcoin reaches $88,000 between Sep 28 and Oct 4, 2026 resolved NO; our test wallet redeemed its NO shares on chain. Payout transaction ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Min $0.01 · Pays in COIN (tokenized, on Base) · Fund with USDC or COIN

Fills now or not at all; the signature expires in 10 minutes. COIN here is wtCOIN on Base; dollars at $168.98 today.

Signal: none yet — prices match Polymarket

The prices match Polymarket’s odds ↗ (18.5%), so they imply today’s price either way. A gap shows once someone disagrees.

The signal over time

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Details

How it’s derived

A YES share pays one COIN if it happens and nothing otherwise, so its price is roughly the chance it happens times what COIN would be worth then. Divide out the chance and what is left is the market’s value of COIN given that it happens. The same for NO, with the chance it doesn’t.

If it happens: YES 0.185 (mid) ÷ P 0.185 = 1.00× spot ≈ $169
Otherwise: NO 0.815 ÷ (1 − P) 0.815 = 1.00× spot ≈ $169

How far to trust it

Chance (P): 18.5% from Polymarket, as of just now. It is a reference: not traded here, settles nothing here. Their book: bid 18.0%, ask 19.0% (1.0 points wide).
Leg prices: The midpoint of this book: YES 0.185 COIN (bid 0.147, ask 0.223, 7.6 points wide); NO is the rest of one share.
Spot: $169 from a DEX route quote of the token into USDC on Base. It only turns the multiples into dollars.
Updated: Just now; refreshed every 20 seconds.
Sensitivity: One point of P moves the “if it happens” value by about 5%.

Order book

Price (COIN)Shares

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Recent trades

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Rules

Settled on UMA ↗

Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?

Full rules and settlement

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

How it settles

1
Deadline · 1 Nov 2026
The words above are frozen on chain.
2
Anyone proposes the answer
With a 500 USDC bond on UMA.
3
24h to dispute
Undisputed, it settles; a second dispute goes to a UMA vote.
4
Redeem
The winning leg redeems for one COIN.

Contracts and settlement

This question mirrors the Polymarket market "Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?" (https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-october-2026, Polygon conditionId 0x5280e91e95ab540de0879f26813f060f51f9d77d8c2e41dd81f1aec41c8bb714). Its rules are copied verbatim below as published on 2026-10-08; wherever they say "this market", they mean that Polymarket market.

Nobody can edit the frozen words, including Polymarket. The proposer posts a 500 USDC bond plus UMA’s 250 USDC final fee, both returned if their answer stands, on UMA, the oracle Polymarket also uses, through the same adapter contract Polymarket uses, unmodified. A first dispute re-opens the question; a second goes to UMA’s token-holder vote, and whoever was wrong loses their bond: if you hold a leg a wrong answer would hurt, the dispute window is yours.

Emergency override: the adapter’s admin can flag a question and resolve it manually one hour later, with any payout, over whatever UMA said. That power exists in Polymarket’s adapter as deployed (0x006B05…19e665 (opens in a new tab)).

Polymarket’s own result has no effect here. The two are expected to agree because the wording is the same.

Oracle: 0x006B05…19e665 (opens in a new tab)
Question id: 0x571516b80152c1108740b7a82ad93c24e585c9a8ae96e23589af2998c6db019d
Condition: 0x10039abe1de947b678d0efa093e9fd9c76232eab856cb31e0b76cf6cec94e3d7
Exchange: 0xc8648C…b8F8AF (opens in a new tab)
Collateral: wtCOIN (opens in a new tab)

Settles through Polymarket's UMA adapter (unmodified) on UMA's Optimistic Oracle. The question text is frozen on chain and copies Polymarket's rules word for word. After the deadline anyone can propose the answer with a 500 USDC bond plus UMA's 250 USDC final fee (both returned if the answer stands); undisputed for 24h it settles, disputed it goes to UMA's token-holder vote. Polymarket's own result has no effect here. The adapter's admin can flag an unresolved question and resolve it manually one hour later — an emergency override over UMA's answer, disclosed because it exists.
The Polymarket probability shown is for reference only. It is not traded here and does not settle anything here.
wtCOIN is an upgradeable token controlled by its issuer. Every position here depends on it.
Dividends accrue into wtCOIN as backing and flow to whichever leg wins. These legs decompose total return, not price.
A contingent claim on a security is a derivative on a security. This is a proof of concept.