Resolves 1 Jan 2027 · 73 days

TSM if China invades Taiwan in 2026

Resolves 1 Jan 2027 · 73 days

2.1%Chance from Polymarket ↗97.9%

Pick YES or NO

What the prices imply for TSM

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The signal over time

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Details

How it’s derived

A YES share pays one TSM if it happens and nothing otherwise, so its price is roughly the chance it happens times what TSM would be worth then. Divide out the chance and what is left is the market’s value of TSM given that it happens. The same for NO, with the chance it doesn’t.

No live figures to show the arithmetic with right now.

How far to trust it

Chance (P): 2.1% from Polymarket, as of 13s ago. It is a reference: not traded here, settles nothing here. Their book: bid 2.1%, ask 2.2% (0.1 points wide).
Leg prices: No quotes or trades in the last day on this book. The legs sit at P, which carries no view of its own: the implied values just equal spot.
Spot: $423 from a DEX route quote of the token into USDC on Base. It only turns the multiples into dollars.
Updated: 13s ago; refreshed every 20 seconds.
Low probability: At 2.1%, one point of P moves the “if it happens” value by about 47%. Read it as a direction, not a price.

Order book

Price (TSM)Shares

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Recent trades

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Rules

Settled on UMA ↗

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Full rules and settlement

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

How it settles

1
Deadline · 1 Jan 2027
The words above are frozen on chain.
2
Anyone proposes the answer
With a 500 USDC bond on UMA.
3
24h to dispute
Undisputed, it settles; a second dispute goes to a UMA vote.
4
Redeem
The winning leg redeems for one TSM.

Contracts and settlement

This question mirrors the Polymarket market "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" (https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027, Polygon conditionId 0xd9fb1184af0064e5e34b129f5b79afa5a17b7e32f2953ab05efed82315fee6d4). Its rules are copied verbatim below as published on 2026-09-30; wherever they say "this market", they mean that Polymarket market.

Nobody can edit the frozen words, including Polymarket. The proposer posts a 500 USDC bond plus UMA’s 250 USDC final fee, both returned if their answer stands, on UMA, the oracle Polymarket also uses, through the same adapter contract Polymarket uses, unmodified. A first dispute re-opens the question; a second goes to UMA’s token-holder vote, and whoever was wrong loses their bond: if you hold a leg a wrong answer would hurt, the dispute window is yours.

Emergency override: the adapter’s admin can flag a question and resolve it manually one hour later, with any payout, over whatever UMA said. That power exists in Polymarket’s adapter as deployed (0x006B05…19e665 (opens in a new tab)).

Polymarket’s own result has no effect here. The two are expected to agree because the wording is the same.

Oracle: 0x006B05…19e665 (opens in a new tab)
Question id: 0x30ab83afe158aa7981c40beecfac126da12a454aa721acf0b5752f3454367064
Condition: 0x8bd9b617cc82f2b8245017e0c919cc28ed954f0fe43ab271973d826e262cd461
Exchange: 0x1a8602…CD4785 (opens in a new tab)
Collateral: wtTSM (opens in a new tab)

Settles through Polymarket's UMA adapter (unmodified) on UMA's Optimistic Oracle. The question text is frozen on chain and copies Polymarket's rules word for word. After the deadline anyone can propose the answer with a 500 USDC bond plus UMA's 250 USDC final fee (both returned if the answer stands); undisputed for 24h it settles, disputed it goes to UMA's token-holder vote. Polymarket's own result has no effect here. The adapter's admin can flag an unresolved question and resolve it manually one hour later — an emergency override over UMA's answer, disclosed because it exists.
The Polymarket probability shown is for reference only. It is not traded here and does not settle anything here.
wtTSM is an upgradeable token controlled by its issuer. Every position here depends on it.
Dividends accrue into wtTSM as backing and flow to whichever leg wins. These legs decompose total return, not price.
A contingent claim on a security is a derivative on a security. This is a proof of concept.